Election Night 2009, Part 1. Predictions & General Thoughts

It's an off year for elections, but with the turbulent times today, there are 6 races people around the country are watching tonight. Republicans are hoping that wins in all or most of these races will be taken as a trend in the United States away from Barack Obama and his policies. Democrats really don't see that trend happening at any rate, but are anxious to avoid the appearance of it by picking off at least couple of these.

The races are:

US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

NY-23--A heavily Republican district that hasn't been won by a democrat in more than 100 years. Recently, a radical right wing candidate entered the race and threatened to split the Republican vote, virtually handing this race to the democrat. However, as of last week, the actual Republican has dropped out of the race, and though she actually endorsed the democrat, it's expected that with the Republican vote no longer split, the Conservative candidate will hold on to this seat rather easily. My prediction is just that. Republicans will keep this seat by at least 4-6 points.

CA-10. A current democrat district that Republicans were looking to pick up in the wake of the tea-bagger movement and anti state government sentiment in California. Unfortunately for them, the only Californians that care about tea-bagging live in San Francisco and have been doing it for years. However, this district was in Republican hands as recently as 1996, and is considered to be kind of a Blue Dog district, while the dem candidate here is an unabashed liberal. A win here shows a real left move for this district. My prediction is that the Dems hold this seat by 7-9 points.

Governorships

Virginia-- The democrat candidate has been badly beaten up in this race and I expect the Republican to win by at least 10 points.

New Jersey--A couple of months back this looked like a slam dunk for The Republicans. However, corruption and campaign problems have held their candidate down in recent weeks, many polls now show the democrat incumbent once again in the lead. I'll this one for the democrats, but it won't be called tonight and it will probably go into absentee ballots and become very messy.

State Ballot Measures

Maine--Question 1. If question 1 passes in Maine, it will strike down a law made earlier this year by the Maine legislature legalizing gay marriage. So in this case, a YES vote is AGAINST gay marriage. I predict this will pass closely and outlaw Gay Marriage in Maine. Nate Silver at 538.com feels differently about this and I hope he's right.

Washington--Referendum 71. If this passes, it will extend "domestic partnerships" to Gay couples, it just doesn't call it "marriage." This is widely expected to pass and I think it will.

So best case/worst case. For the Republicans, they could feasibly win 4 out of these 6 races--NY23, VA-GOV, NJ-GOV, and Maine Question 1. This would be a bit embarrassing for the democrats, but none of these are national races and after a week of press, it'll be back to business as usual. The worst case for the Republicans is more dire. They could feasibly lose 5 out of 6 as well, only taking home VA-GOV. This would be a major setback for them as they try to claim some sort of momentum into the 2010 midterms. It would also be a serious setback for the anti-gay folks to lose both of the ballot measures.

For the Democrats, the best case I think is also 4 out of 6: CA-10, NJ-GOV, Maine Q1, and WA R71. This would alleviate the fear of major Republican momentum. However, don't think they'll get Maine Q1, leaving them with 3 out of 6. The worst case here for dems is losing 4 of 6, while winning CA-10 and WA R71. This would mean Glenn Beck and a lot of moron pundits spouting off on Obama for the next week, but outside of political thought circles, this sentiment would dissipate rather quickly.

It should be an interesting night. More updates to come.